President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to initiate military operations inside Mexico to target drug cartel leaders have raised serious concerns among experts, with many expressing skepticism about the effectiveness of such an approach.
Trump’s administration reportedly aims to launch these operations in an effort to curb the flow of drugs into the United States, but experts warn that the strategy could lead to more violence without addressing the root causes of the drug trade.
Carolyn Gallaher, a professor of guerrilla and paramilitary violence at American University, argued that Mexico’s past attempts to wage war against the cartels have already proven to be ineffective. She explained that this approach often leads to internal power struggles within cartels, escalating violence rather than reducing it.
“You have to go back and think of a new strategy,” Gallaher told Rolling Stone. “And going and killing capos is not only not a new strategy, but it is the most failed part of the strategy on both sides of the border.”
Former military officials also expressed concerns, drawing parallels between Trump’s proposed military strategy and the U.S. government’s long-running “War on Terror,” which has been widely criticized for its lack of success.
A former Marine officer, speaking anonymously, said, “That sounds a whole lot like what we did in Afghanistan for 20 years unsuccessfully. What’s the metric that these people are going to use that says, oh yeah, we’ve achieved a victory? We’re not fighting an army. We’re fighting poverty. Let’s fight desperation. Let’s fight hopelessness.”
Another military veteran who worked in special operations in Iraq also warned against the proposed strategy, calling it “Iraq all over again.” This reference to Iraq underscores the concern that military action against the cartels could end up being as ineffective as the U.S. efforts in the Middle East.
Despite these critiques, the incoming administration seems determined to pursue military action, though experts are deeply concerned that the plan may exacerbate the violence and instability already present in Mexico, without tackling the underlying social and economic issues driving the drug trade. The ongoing debate highlights the challenges that the new administration will face in trying to craft a more effective strategy for addressing the drug epidemic in the U.S.