Trump’s 2024 Hopes May Be Undermined by the Electoral College, Despite Gains with Minority Voters

Former President Donald Trump owes his 2016 victory to the Electoral College, which handed him the presidency despite losing the popular vote. Narrow wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin secured his electoral triumph. However, in the 2024 race, the same Electoral College system that propelled him to victory may now pose a significant challenge, according to Mark Joseph Stern in a recent Slate article.

Stern revisits the origins of the Electoral College, explaining its creation during the Constitutional Convention as a compromise to appease Southern states. “At the Constitutional Convention, Southern delegates opposed direct elections of presidents,” Stern writes. These states feared losing influence because a large portion of their population—enslaved and disenfranchised individuals—couldn’t vote.

The resulting Electoral College system gave Southern states disproportionate power by counting enslaved people as three-fifths of a person for representation in Congress, thus enhancing their political influence. Although slavery has since been abolished, the system continues to prioritize certain states and voter demographics, which often benefits white voters.

Stern argues that Trump may now face the downside of this system in the 2024 election, even as recent polls suggest he’s improving with minority voters. These polls show Trump gaining ground with Black, Latino, and Asian voters, while Vice President Kamala Harris, who is expected to be the Democratic nominee if President Joe Biden doesn’t run, is holding steady with white voters.

This dynamic is unusual, and some analysts question whether the polls accurately reflect voter sentiment, as dedicated surveys of minority groups show little movement since 2020. If Trump’s improved performance with minority voters is real, it may not be enough to guarantee him victory. As Stern explains, gaining with Latino voters might help Trump in states like Texas, and Florida, and potentially reduce Harris’ lead in California.

Similarly, winning more Black votes could help him in Mississippi. However, these gains are unlikely to benefit Trump in the critical battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that secured his 2016 win, where white voters play a disproportionately large role in determining the outcome.

“Harris is still favored to win the popular vote, even if she loses the Electoral College,” Stern concludes. Despite Trump’s potential gains with minority voters, the Electoral College remains a system designed to prioritize white voters, meaning Trump must shore up more support among white Americans to avoid learning the hard limits of nonwhite support in a system that devalues their votes.