As his poll numbers dip, former President Donald Trump has increasingly embraced conspiracy theories surrounding an alleged assassination attempt, raising concerns among experts that he could be inciting his base to violence if he loses the election.
The former president, along with his wife, has been referencing the July 13 shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, where one of his supporters was killed, two others were injured, and Trump himself claimed to have sustained a minor injury. “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me,” Trump said during Tuesday’s debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, according to The Washington Post.
Trump has been suggesting that the shooting was an “inside job,” allegedly orchestrated by government agencies or lawyers with supposed Democratic Party ties. His statements have caught the attention of researchers studying political violence, who warn that such rhetoric could encourage his supporters to take matters into their own hands.
“It is creating a permission structure for at least some people to want to take matters into their own hands,” said Matt Dallek, a professor at George Washington University who studies the conservative movement. Dallek explained that Trump’s statements operate similarly to the “big lie” about the 2020 election being stolen, which fueled widespread unrest and violence, including the January 6 Capitol riot.
The incident in Butler, where 20-year-old gunman Thomas Crooks was killed by a Secret Service sniper, remains under investigation. No motive has been determined, but security lapses that allowed Crooks to fire shots have fueled conspiracy theories, some promoted by Trump himself. This has further mobilized his supporters, who see these claims as justification for defending the former president by any means necessary.
“This is all set up to prime his base to believe that, if he loses in November, the Democrats have once again stolen the election,” said Barbara F. Walter, a professor at the University of California at San Diego and author of How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them. “He’s going to ratchet up that narrative even further” as polls show the possibility of defeat.
Experts are concerned that Trump’s narrative of victimhood and conspiracy is laying the groundwork for potential violence if the election results don’t go his way. With inflammatory rhetoric becoming a hallmark of his campaign, the risk of unrest looms large as the election draws nearer.