“The Best Way to Win Is to Have Lost”: The Real Reason Behind Trump’s Re-Election

In the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election to the presidency, political analysts from both sides of the aisle have been scrambling to decode the reasons behind his victory. Was it Trump’s unique political appeal, or was it a broader trend reflecting global frustrations with incumbents? On Wednesday evening’s episode of The Beat on MSNBC, Michael Podhorzer, a senior fellow with the left-leaning Center for American Progress, offered a compelling analysis.

Discussing the election results with anchor Chris Hayes, Podhorzer pointed out that the outcome was less about Trump’s popularity and more about a broader anti-incumbent sentiment. “The basic idea here,” Hayes began, “was it Trump’s message or Trump himself that had some kind of unique political appeal, or was it anti-incumbent frustration?” Hayes added, “You make a pretty convincing case it really is that one.”

“Right,” Podhorzer affirmed. “I think that it was as close as it was because of how unpopular he is. Like, if it had been a fresh candidate, I think it would’ve looked much more like the backlashes against incumbents around the rest of the world.”

Podhorzer emphasized that voter turnout data supports this conclusion. “The point I make is that when you look at the actual number of people going out to vote, there were about 19 million people who had voted for Biden four years ago who just didn’t vote this time,” he explained. “Really, think about that, right?”

He also highlighted a larger trend that transcends any single election. “When we look at each election result just in this very narrow context of what each campaign did, we miss the larger picture. In the 21st century, for the first time, we’ve had nine of the last 10 elections firing the party in power. That hasn’t happened before. We haven’t had three consecutive flips in the White House since the 19th century.”

Podhorzer concluded with a stark assessment of voter sentiment: “People don’t like the choices they’re being offered, and basically the best way to win this election is to have lost the last one. The breathless commentary about Trump winning gives the false impression that individual Americans have decided they like what he has to offer. It’s just not the case.”

The analysis offers a sobering perspective: Trump’s re-election is less an endorsement of his leadership and more a reflection of widespread dissatisfaction with the political system itself.